Well, I would have to agree. I don't know about the 10 year timeline, but I am someone who canceled my Dish Network and bought a cheap laptop with an HDMI connector. I now have a $9/month subscription to NetFlix which includes a large library of online movies and TV shows available for instant viewing. I catch my favorite TNT shows online, and hulu.com is also one of my bookmarks.
I'm saving over $50/month, so my laptop will pay for itself by the end of the year, and I have access to more shows . . . and I can still view them on my TV with the big picture and stereo sound.
It's not for everyone - it does take a bit more work to get to what I want to watch, and I no longer have the simplicity of the DVR. I know my dad is baffled by the whole process. . . but I am willing to bet that things will become easier as more people use services this way.
Of course, as it gets simpler and more mainstream, I'm sure there will be more fees involved too. In 10 years, cable may be dead, but a lot of free online content may not be free anymore either. Time will tell.